BreakingNews 18/9/16 - Recession: 10 Steps To Fix Nigeria`s Economic Crisis

[ Masterweb Reports: Dr. Peregrino Brimah reports ] - Nigeria needs to rapidly apply solid solutions to rescue the nation from its current recession. Millions have lost their jobs – 4.6 million according to the national statistics bureau – and millions more are suffering severe hardship and dying and at risk of death. The further down Nigeria sinks, the steeper will be the climb out of the hole.

 

Sadly, most of what we read from so-called economic experts is advice for the Nigerian government to consult them or others to address the economic recession. None of them has opened up in the public space, if they have the ideas, and proffered the solutions to the current economic quagmire. They keep talking like it's some sort of riddle and as though Nigeria is not their country and they are not part of those who got the nation where it is today. Indeed we are all responsible, but most especially those who have been in governments in the past; however blaming is disingenuous and counterproductive. What Nigeria needs now is solutions.

 

The solutions for an economic recession, if it can be solved, are not private or secrets of any kind. This is why anyone who keeps it a mystery does not have anything good to offer. The U.S. recession was solved with simple open processes including for a big part, the "2009 Stimulus" [the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA)].

 

A few "solution" comments I have read which include, flooding the economy and diversifying, are palliative and long-term and not to address the fundamental, acute and chronic issues that are not peculiar to Nigeria. While I am not an economist by training, as an educated Nigerian with preservation of my nation at heart, it is my duty to contribute my researched analysis on the solutions for the current problem(s).

 

How Did Nigeria Get Here?

 

While the Obasanjo and Jonathan governments definitely played a major role in getting us here by selling (Obasanjo privatization frenzy) all of Nigeria to cabal and looting all its earnings, it is counterintuitive to keep blaming them. The truth is that there is more to this recession than the tens of billions of dollars they and their private cabal partners looted and the infrastructure they failed to build. We must recognize that the recession is not limited to Nigeria. Venezuela is feeling it too; even Saudi Arabia is laying off workers in the thousands.

 

Two global factors played the biggest role in bringing on this economic famine.

 

The first was the Saudi oil war-games. By pumping oil at above quota, Saudi Arabia single-handedly determined to crash oil prices and punish all oil producers. Saudi pumps oil at under $10 a barrel which makes low prices still profitable for them, unlike Nigeria where the Obasanjos, Babangidas and other semi-intelligent, money worshipping lowly organisms exploited the country permanently with deals that produce our oil at as much as $33/barrel. Low oil prices, with oil being Nigeria's mono-economic singular export, naturally crashed the Naira. Unfortunately when teased during an Al-Jazeera interview, President Buhari said he will never challenge Saudi Arabia on the kingdom's crippling decisions and will not even dare threaten to pull out of Saudi-run OPEC in order to push for Nigeria's survival. So we are stuck here as far as oil prices go.

 

The second factor that really triggered this recession, most specifically, the tissued Naira was a U.S. decision made public – and thus, operative– as early as March 2014, to increase interest rates. Floating this decision alone caused investors to buy-up the dollar and through 2014 before the rate was even increased, the Benjamin appreciated the most it ever had in a decade, rising as much as 12% in value that year alone. Naira crashed as did Cedis and other currencies. By December of 2015, the U.S. Fed finally increased interest rates to between 0.25 and 0.5% and the fortunes were sealed. The Dollar continued to appreciate, investors in the U.S. would get more money on their bank deposits and mortgages would rise. The rates are on course to further increases to about 0.875% in 2016. It's summer for the dollar and winter for the Naira.

 

It is important to always compare what is happening in Nigeria to peer nations. Our analysts compared the changes to the Naira to the Cedis. Like the 2012 fuel subsidy removal which was not a puppet Jonathan thing per se but a mandate from the IMF as we noticed that the same subsidy was removed across West African nations at the same time on the instance of Lagarde, so also the Forex crash has been virtually identical in Nigeria and Ghana. While the Cedis dropped over the past three years under highlight, gradually, reaching a 1:4 value from the initial 1:1.7 it was in early 2014 post revaluation, the Naira was artificially retained at an inflated value and crashed in one swoop, also downgrading from about 1:160 to 1:425. Both have crashed the same proportion.

 

Bear

 
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